Principles are great. Master the underlying theory of a specialism and you’re likely to have more success, more often.

But applying principles only helps if they address a performance constraint. Marketing theory is no use if the problem is cost control. CX principles won't help if brand awareness is the problem.

That’s why systems thinking is great. It can help you discover where to focus your attention for maximum impact, and consider the broader consequences of decisions.

But systems thinking also has limits. In our dynamic, complex world there is always an element of chance. We don’t control much of what happens around us, so outcomes are never guaranteed.

That’s why probabilistic thinking is invaluable. Because in reality, business isn’t an equation to be solved, it’s a numbers game to be played.

Upfront analysis and plans often provide a false sense of security — we must also run experiments and learn what works. Strategy counts for few of life’s successes compared to serendipity — we need to be open to unexpected opportunities.

Use all three approaches — thinking in principles, systems and probabilities — and you’ll maximize your payoffs.

#strategy #marketing #management

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