The media — social and otherwise — is awash with expert proclamations about how the world will be different when the current pandemic subsides. You're probably best off ignoring these predictions.

After analyzing 28,000 expert predictions, Philip Tetlock concluded: "Despite massive investments of money, effort and ingenuity, our ability to predict human affairs is impressive only in its mediocrity."

He continues, "The average expert's forecasts were revealed to be only slightly more accurate than random guessing, only a bit better than the proverbial dart-throwing chimpanzee. And the average expert performed slightly worse than a still more mindless competition: simple extrapolation algorithms that automatically predicted more of the same."*

We're better off accepting that nobody has a clue what the future holds and surrendering to uncertainty.

Instead of trying to control the uncontrollable, we can instead find comfort in a fundamental truth: that whatever the future brings, there will be opportunity for those who remain adaptable and responsive, are willing to roll up their sleeves, and set out to create value for others.

*Tetlock, P. et. al. (2011) "What's Wrong With Expert Predictions " Washington D.C.: Cato Unbound

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