Being able to explain success after it has happened isn’t the same as creating a prescription for success in the future. 

It’s easy to point out that someone sailed off into a “blue ocean” once they've succeeded, for example, but it’s almost impossible to execute such a strategy deliberately, which is why you can’t find many — if any! — case studies of people intentionally pulling off such a manoeuvre.

Sure, we can pontificate about the “job to be done” by a milkshake, per Clayton Christensen's famous example. But the milkshake had been selling in abundance for years before this existential question was asked. It would be harder to apply such a technique if the milkshake didn't exist yet. 

According to a report by Boston Consulting Group, Honda’s success selling small motorcycles in America conformed perfectly to their clever theories. According to Honda though, this was nonsense. In reality, they tried selling big motorcycles and failed, but people seemed to like the little scooters their employees were using, so they tried selling them instead.

The implications are clear. When presented with a management theory or clever sounding strategy, don’t look for whether it convincingly explains past successes, look for examples of people who have deliberately applied it and succeeded as a result. The two are not the same, and you may be surprised at how hard it is to successfully apply these theories and strategies in your own situation.

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