Picture the scene. Your logistics startup is cratering, you can’t secure a loan, and you don’t have enough money in the bank to pay your $24,000 jet fuel bill let alone anything else. What do you do?

When Fred Smith found himself in such a situation he arrived at an unconventional solution. He hopped on a plane to Las Vegas with the last $5000 his company had in the bank, and put it on the blackjack table.

Lucky for Fred he won $27,500, leaving $3000 left after the fuel bill and was able to keep the company going. That company is alive and well today. It’s called FedEx.

This little vignette illustrates two important points:

1. Case studies almost always explain business success or failure through the lens of strategy, analysis, and positioning, which is why this story (and the thousands of others like it) are not that widely known, and why we put so much faith in upfront planning and pseudo-scientific analysis of the market. 

But these case studies are just post-rationalizations which are deeply misleading. What is far more important, as the story demonstrates, is tenacity, creativity, adaptability and comfort with taking risks. The business model canvas or Porter's five forces aren't coming to save you in your hour of need.

2. Successful entrepreneurs focus on their downside not their upside. In Fred's position, what’s the downside in gambling the money? Answer: there isn’t one. If he loses all five grand his business is just as screwed as if the five grand is still in the bank. 

To understand more about these vital topics — how to get out of analysis paralysis, adopt a mindset that can cope with the unexpected, and think like a seasoned entrepreneur — Mastering Uncertainty is the book for you. 

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