A sincere question for the cognoscenti and thinkers among my network (that means you):

Has awareness of our cognitive biases actually made us better decision-makers or just made it far harder to trust our own judgements and the opinions of others?

I recently found myself berating a paediatrician, for example, who couldn’t tell me whether a course of action he suggested — based on a singular memorable event in his career — was supported by broader rigorous research or was just his availability bias. Yes, I make friends wherever I go, but it’s not as if I spare myself either.

Is that research I’m reading just playing into my confirmation bias? Could I have predicted that failure all along or was it the hindsight bias? Do I really think that person is smart or is it the halo effect? Do they really know what it takes to succeed or is it the survivorship bias talking?

Read Rolf Dobelli’s book The Art of Thinking Clearly — which contains ninety-nine ways our internal firmware distorts and deceives, and you can’t help thinking it should have been called “Why thinking clearly is totally impossible and you’ll never trust another person’s judgement again.” Too long for the cover maybe.

What do you think?

See this post on LinkedIn